Global ad market forecasted to grow 7.8% in 2024
Global advertising revenue will grow 7.8% in 2024 to $989.8 billion, marketing giant Group M says in its half year forecast. The ad industry is expected to surpass one trillion in revenue in 2025, increasing 6.8% to $1.1 trillion, one year earlier than in the company’s forecast six months ago.
The US is expected to reach $365.9 billion in ad revenue, up 5.8% over 2023’s $345.9 billion excluding the impact of political advertising in both years.
The forecast stresses that both AI development and political regulation can upend the forecasts.
The company says that the marketing ecosystem over the next few years will face impacts from governments and regulatory bodies across the world. It stresses that this is especially the case with decisions that could be taken by the US and China.
“AI also has the potential to reshape the industry – as do regulations put in place to guide (or control) its growth. Those regulations, of course, depend on politicians, which in turn are determined by upcoming election cycles”, the forecast says most probably referring especially to the US presidential election in November.
“The great economic engines of the US and China, which together make up 57.1% of global ad revenue, are clearly the largest drivers of growth, adding $44.5 billion to their totals in 2024 (excluding US political spending) — nearly 1.5 times the cumulative $27.4 billion in incremental revenue for all other markets combined”, the forecast says.
“They are also home to 22 of the top 25 global media sellers and account for more than 40% of global GDP.”
Media channel forecast: Digital + 10%, Search +5.3%, Retail +17.5, TV +2.7%, OOH +11.5%, Audio +0.8%, Print -3.0%, Cinema +7.1%.
“The marketing ecosystem over the next few years will face potential impacts from governments and regulatory bodies across the world — impacts that have the potential to upend forecasts and alter even the most sound projections. On top of that, such projections can be skewed by two major players, China and the U.S. Their governments and their major companies have the power to shape vast aspects of the global economy.”
“Artificial Intelligence also has the potential to reshape the industry — as do regulations put in place to guide (or control) its growth. Those regulations, of course, depend on politicians, which in turn are determined by upcoming election cycles.”
“Despite some reactionary moves toward protectionism from some of those politicians, we can see the power and enduring appeal of shared experiences brought by globalisation, whether it be a Korean series rocketing to the top of the Netflix charts, or Rema bringing Afrobeats to Spotify’s top songs list. You can see it, too, in increasingly global fan bases for sports.”
With increased globalisation – of financial systems, commerce, and media – can come a level of resilience as interconnected systems such as coral reefs tend to be very adept at recovering from multitudinous small shocks. Innovation, the exchange of ideas, and a shared goal to make the advertising industry work better for everyone will help ensure a bright future”, the forecast says.
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