Advertisers forecast rising media inflation for next couple of years
Media inflation for advertisers is predicted to rise over the next couple of years. If we assume that an advertiser reached 100 people in 2023, the latest numbers mean that the same plan will only reach 89 people in 2026, based on the global averages, the World Federation of Advertisers’ global lead, Tom Ashby, writes in a report. 9 out of 10 top global markets expected to see prices rise more than in 2024.
“The potential good news for planners is that with exceptions, media prices are generally forecast to rise by mid-to-high single digits for most media channels in most markets”, WEF’s Outlook 2025 says.
“2024 media price inflation forecasts have picked up slightly: from 3.1% forecast in April to 3.3% now, with increases in US and Western Europe offsetting forecasted reductions in China and Japan. And this pattern of increasing media price inflation looks to be the story for the next few years”, according to the Outlook.
Looking ahead to 2025, the report forecasts that nine of the top 10 global media markets will see greater media price inflation in 2025 than 2024, led by the US rising from 2.1% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025.
“The one exception is the UK, but signs of rising prices are present there too. We note forecasters on average revised up their 2024 inflation forecasts by more than a full percentage point (from 2.8% to 3.9%) between April and August this year.”
WFA Outlook also includes preliminary 2026 forecasts for the top 10 markets, with inflation expected to accelerate significantly.
“India stands out with consistently high levels of media price inflation, with 8% in 2024, 9% forecasted for 2025 and 9.6% forecasted for 2026. The US is forecast to see 3.9% inflation in 2026, China 5.4% (from 3.6% in 2025), and Japan 3.1% (from 1.8% in 2025).”
The report also includes more detailed TV data for the US and UK.
“US figures for 2024 show a forecasted easing of media price inflation compared to the forecasts in April, but participants noted these predictions have been made before the presidential race hits the most budget-intense weeks and there could still be revision upwards.”
“TV viewing in the UK dropped significantly Q2 2024, causing a sharp increase in cost per viewer, particularly among the more desirable demographics. While the April poll results forecasted a c.18% increase for Q2, prices actually rose by c.28%. This extreme situation shows how plans need to remain fluid, as even longstanding media channels in the most developed markets can still spike unexpectedly.”
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