Advertising forecast downgraded
The risk of prolonged stagflation – and outright recession – has grown in key economies, exacerbated by new trade tariffs set to bite from H2 2025. Automakers, retailers and tech brands are most exposed, according to an updated advertising forecast by marketing firm WARC. The company is downgrading advertising spend this year (-0.9pp to +6.7%) and next (-0.7pp to +6.3%), equivalent to a $19.8bn cut.
“ Regulation is another headwind, with the EU tightening its stance on both Google and Apple. Outstanding US antitrust rulings against Google and TikTok also add to a climate of uncertainty for media strategists.”
The global ad market is expected to be worth $1.15trn this year, an absolute rise of $72.9bn (+6.7%) from a strong 2024.
Alternative modelling based on a pessimistic OECD scenario further cuts admarket growth, to +6.4% this year, the forecast says.
“Despite the growing volatility, digital advertising remains strong, led by three companies – Alphabet, Amazon and Meta – on course to control over half of the market in 2029″, says James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC,
“Regulatory scrutiny and uncertainty around TikTok’s future in the US further compound risks to growth, however, advertisers must be nimble in order to seize initiative in this shifting landscape.”
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