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Downgrading advertising forecasts

Group M downgrading forecasts with global advertising to grow 5.9% in 2023

Global advertising will grow 5.9% next year with strong gains in connected TV, retail media and fast-growing markets like India, advertising giant Group M forecasts. The new prediction is a downgrade from 6.4% forecasted in June. “Barring an escalation to the war in Ukraine or another pandemic-sized global disaster, we expect growth to climb in 2024 to 6.2% before returning to a trend of decelerating mid-single-digit growth through 2027.”

Key facts:

  • The difference between current estimates and the June forecast can primarily be explained by changed expectations for China, which has gone from 3.3% growth to 0.6% decline, and for the U.S., where we now predict 7.1% growth (excluding political advertising) versus 10.1% in June. These two markets will make up 55.5% of all advertising revenue in 2022, the company says.
  • By 2025, all pay TV providers combined will reach fewer than half of homes in the U.S.
  • Retail media is forecast to reach $110.7 billion this year, up from our September estimate of $101 billion.
  • Google and Meta captured 42.7% of all advertising (not just digital) in 2022, excluding China.

“In a world beset by economic uncertainty, advertising has been thrust into the spotlight as a sort of bellwether for Big Tech and retail commerce. Held up to that light, the narrative surrounding the health of the global advertising economy is not altogether negative”, the forecast says. 

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Global advertising growth for 2022 will be 6.5%, excluding U.S. political advertising. This is down from 8.4% growth forecasted in June. 

“However, this is primarily the effect of lowered China expectations. Ex-China, growth is forecast at 8.1% for 2022”, the forecast says.

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Total advertising will have a compound annual growth rate for total advertising from 2019-2022 is at 8.8%, nearly identical to the 8.7% rate from 2016-2019. The company says this optimism is explained by:

  1. Large declines appear limited to select channels in select markets.
  2. Large advertisers are seeing revenue gains despite voicing caution.
  3. Unemployment remains low and new business creation remains a source of growth.
  4. Digital media continues to grow.
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