Uncertainty about AI impact 2030 stressed in new report
Big tech companies expect positive impact of AI as they continue to spend impressively on AI development while some investors hesitate and want to see results. Uncertainty is stressed in a new report from World Economic Forum about expected AI impact by 2030. “As AI shifts from experimentation to integration, the pace and trajectory of its advancement deepen the uncertainty about its implications on businesses, workers and the global economy, the Forum says in the report showing uncertainties by including four major alternative developments.
According to the Forum’s annual survey of executives globally, about 54% expect AI to displace existing jobs. 24% say AI will drive the creation of new jobs. More than 40%m expect AI to increase profit margins across businesses and only slightly less said AI will increase accessibility (37%) and affordability (30%) of goods and services.
Only 12% expect AI to have a positive impact on wages. 24% predict an increase in industry concentration.
“The future of workplaces and value chains will not be defined by the technologies alone. Human capital strategies and investments prioritized today will determine how well societies and individual businesses can adapt to – and lead in – the new economy”, the new report says.
The alternative scenarios are based on views and insights from the members of the Forum’s Chief Strategy Officers Community and experts across the Forum’s Industry Communities and Global Foresight Network.
The alternatives:
Supercharged Progress
Exponential AI breakthroughs reshape industries, business models and workflows. Productivity soars and innovation flourishes. Widespread AI readiness allows people to harness the “agentic leap”, adapt to AI-centric economies and partially contain displacement.
Many jobs have disappeared, but new occupations emerge and scale fast, in part with humans directing portfolios of capable machines and becoming agent orchestrators.
Social safety nets, ethics and governance frameworks struggle to keep up with the pace and scale of change.
The Age of Displacement
Exponential AI advancement outpaces the capacity of the workforce to adapt. Businesses race to automate as a stopgap, displacing workers faster than education and reskilling systems can respond.
Agentic AI takes over key processes, creating a productivity upsurge, but also new risks. Economies race ahead technologically but fracture socially: unemployment spikes, consumer confidence erodes and governments face mounting societal risks and instability.
Co-Pilot Economy
Gradual AI progress and availability of AI-ready skillsets shift the focus towards augmentation rather than mass automation. The AI hype of the 2020s has given way to pragmatic integration: most industries see incremental transformation as human–AI teams reshape value chains. Countries and businesses that invested early in training, mobility, digital infrastructure and AI governance have created conditions to absorb and advance emerging technologies.
Stalled Progress
Steady AI progress meets a workforce lacking critical skills. Productivity growth is patchy, and businesses lean on automation to backfill scarce talent.
Gains concentrate within businesses and geographies with AI expertise, while others face eroding competitiveness.
Displacement hits primarily routine roles, while the value of skilled trades and manual occupations increases.
The hope of AI-enabled prosperity fades into frustration, as adoption gaps fuel inequality, create a bifurcated economy and limit growth.
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