Uncertainty about Trump’s tariffs affecting tech sales

Author Moonshot.news

Published on: 30/05/2025

Uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s announced trade tariffs is affecting global forecasts for sales of PC and smartphones . Sales of PCs and tablets are expected to increase despite the uncertainty while worldwide shipments of smartphones are downgraded. Global PC sales is expected to be up 4.1% compared to last year while global sales of smartphones is forecasted to grow no more than 0.6% compared to an earlier forecast showing growth of 2.3%, reports from market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) shows.

After noting strong results in the first quarter of 2025, IDC is increasing its PC forecast for 2025 — “despite the significant impact that US tariffs have had”. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 274 million in 2025, growing +4.1% over the prior year. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts a slight contraction in 2026.

“The 90 day pause and tariffs exemption applied to personal computers, combined with a definite level of uncertainty on what will happen after the 90 day pause, is motivating PC manufacturers to seize the moment and ship larger than anticipated volumes in the US,” says Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC research VP.

“However, expectations of worsening macroeconomic conditions around the world and in the US characterised by upward pressures on prices and degrading consumer sentiment, will impact the PC market in the second half of 2025. Nonetheless, IDC expects commercial demand for PCs to be healthy in 2025 as the Windows 11 migration continues steadily.”

“Despite budget pressures on organisations, EMEA’s traditional PC market is set to grow through Q2 2025 and beyond, driven by the end of Windows 10 support and COVID-era refresh cycles,” says Malini Paul, senior research manager of Devices Research. 

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.24 billion units. The forecast was reduced from the 2.3% growth in the February forecast, due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending. 

Growth will remain in low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones, the forecast says.

Despite the increased tensions, the US and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year. China is forecast to grow 3% YoY driven by government subsidies which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android. 

In contrast, Apple is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, overall economic slowdown, and the ineligibility of a majority of its models for government subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline.

“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” says Nabila Popal, IDC senior research director. 

“Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariff hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts.” 

“Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current US market outlook.”