US tariffs forecasted to be negative for PC sales
The new US policy with trade tariffs announced by president Donald Trump is affecting commercial forecasts. Referring to US tariffs on China and a weakening consumer market, market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) is downgrading its forecast for PC sales this year and beyond. Sales of tablets are expected to shrink. By 2026, most new PCs are expected to be GenAI-capable.
Global PC volume is now expected to reach 273 million in 2025, still growing +3.7% over the prior year though this is a slight reduction from the prior forecast. Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts sub 1% growth each year through 2029 for the traditional PC market. This is explained by volume stabilisation when many have upgraded to Windows 11 migration.
Tablets are not expected to fare much better as shipments are anticipated to shrink 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million and the market faces a slight gradual decline, reaching 141.6 million units by the end of 2029 due mostly to consumer saturation, IDC says-
“Price hikes stemming from tariffs in the US combined with subdued demand are leading to a negative impact within the largest market for PCs,” says Jitesh Ubrani, IDC research manager.
“However, the weakness amongst consumer demand is universal as macro issues persist. There are still some silver linings though: workstation volume should remain healthy, along with near-term tablet demand in China boosted by consumer subsidies.”
The company forecasts that commercial and school renewal projects will be the biggest driver for 2025. In keeping with past Windows PC refresh cycles, IDC expects firms to largely continue Windows 11 PC purchases through 2025, although budgets and other constraints will leave some to choose in-place upgrades or pay for extended Windows 10 support.
IDC expects a more robust ecosystem to emerge by latter 2025, leading most new PCs to be GenAI-capable by 2026.
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