Global advertising spend will grow 10.5% this year to a total of $1.07 trillion. This is the best performance in six years if the post-Covid recovery of 2021 (+27.9% year-on-year) is disregarded. Ad spend growth next year will be +7.2% and 7.0% in 2026, culminating in a global ad market worth $1.23 trillion. Meta, Amazon and Alphabet are expected to attract 43.6% of ad spend in 2024, rising to a share over 46% by 2026, marketing firm WARC says in a new forecast.
“Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade, and has grown 2.8x faster than global economic output since 2014.”
The new projections show that online only internet companies are set to record a 14.0% rise in advertising revenue this year, reaching a total of $735.7 bullion.
“In total, almost nine in every ten (88.5%) incremental dollars spent on advertising this year will go to online-only businesses, with half (52.9%) being paid to Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. Taken together, online only platforms are set to account for over 70% of all advertising spend worldwide next year.”
“Retail media (+21.3%), social media (+14.2%) and search (+12.1%) are set to lead digital growth in 2024, with these three sectors alone accounting for over 85% of online spend and almost three in every five (58.7%) incremental dollars spent on advertising worldwide this year.”
“All are benefiting from the increased adoption of AI-driven ad services and growing appreciation of first party data”, the forecast says.
Key findings:
- Social media is the largest single advertising channel measured in WARC’s study, having overtaken search (excl. retail media) for the first time last year. It accounts for 22.6% of all global ad spend this year and is forecast to rise to a share of 23.6% by the end of 2026.
- Within social, Meta is the largest individual player, commanding 62.6% of the market this year. Its share is being eroded however, most notably by Douyin and TikTok owner Bytedance, which now draws a fifth (20.1%) of all social spend, up from a share of just 9.3% five years ago. TikTok is on course to account for over half of its parent-company’s advertising revenue for the first time next year with estimated ad billings over $28bn.
- Search advertising (excluding retail media) accounts for 21.8% of global advertising spend, at a forecast total of $223.8bn this year. Its share has consistently grown since 2013, though it is set to plateau in 2026 as more purchase journeys begin in retail media environments and social commerce begins to realise its potential outside of Asia. Another potential headwind may be the rise of AI-driven search, and uncertainty around what the ad experience will look like for consumers more familiar with text-based search experiences.
- Google accounts for more than four-fifths (84.0%) of the global search market, with its paid search revenue set to top $200bn for the first time next year. Google’s share rises to over 90% if China is excluded.
- Retail media is expected to account for 14.3% of global ad spend this year – a total of $152.6bn – which is double the share recorded in 2019 before the pandemic contributed to an exceptional growth spurt. Indeed, retail media is expected to be the fastest-growing channel over at least the next three years.
- Legacy media, encompassing print publishing, broadcast radio, linear TV, cinema and out of home (OOH), now collectively account for a quarter (25.3%) of total advertising spend, having recorded a dip in share in each of the last 15 years. Advertising spend on legacy media is expected to total $270.5bn this year, representing a 1.5% rise from 2023. Much of this growth can be attributed to US political spending; with this removed legacy media are, collectively, set to record a 0.5% decline in advertiser investment in 2024.
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