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A forecast for ad growth this year and next.

Global advertising forecasted to grow 6% next year

Global advertising will grow 6% in 2024 and 5.9% in 2023, advertising giant Group M predicts in its mid-year forecast.  Global advertising 2023 is expected to total $874.5 billion, excluding US political advertising. The forecast for 2023 is unchanged from the company’s December statement.

Halfway through 2023, we’re still dealing with rising inflation and adjustments to consumer behaviours brought on by the pandemic. As we look ahead to the rest of the year, we should expect a return to some kind of normalcy in terms of advertising revenue growth.”

Key forecasts: 

  • Connected TV adoption, among consumers and advertisers, is growing rapidly, adding 10.4% in ad revenue between 2023 and 2028 on a compound annual basis. Consumer spending on subscription video on demand (SVOD) represents between just one-fifth and one-third of total video spending in major markets, leaving plenty of room for streaming providers to grow subscriptions.
  • Retail media is the third-fastest growing advertising channel in 2023 (behind digital OOH and CTV, although those channels are a fraction of the size). Retail media, defined as including ad revenue from last mile delivery services, will grow 9.9% to reach $125.7 billion in 2023, and is forecast to exceed TV revenue (including CTV) in 2028. 
  • Artificial intelligence is likely to inform, or touch in some way, at least half of all advertising revenue by the end of 2023. 
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