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Zenith Media advertising forecast

Zenith predicts advertising at “historically healthy growth levels.”

Global advertising will grow 4.5% next year and will accelerate to 7.2% in 2024 around major events, including the US Presidential elections and the Olympics, marketing firm Zenith Media forecasts. It says global advertising expenditure is expected to grow 7.3% in 2022. “While slightly below its 8% forecast in June 2022, it represents historically healthy growth levels.”

Advertising giant Group M recently predicted global advertising to grow 5.9% next year with strong gains in connected TV, retail media and fast-growing markets like India. The Group M’s prediction is a downgrade from 6.4% forecasted in June. “Barring an escalation to the war in Ukraine or another pandemic-sized global disaster, we expect growth to climb in 2024 to 6.2% before returning to a trend of decelerating mid-single-digit growth through 2027”, Group M said.

Zenith says it expects resilience to continue into 2023 despite the current economic headwinds, notably with the expansion of new channels such as retail media and advertising on Subscription Video on Demand (SVOD) services. 

Read Also:  Group M downgrading forecasts with global advertising to grow 5.9% in 2023

Zenith expects all regions to continue showing healthy advertising growth over the next few years. 

“We expect the fastest-growing regions between 2022-2025 to be The Americas, and Central and Eastern Europe (excluding Ukraine and Russia) with a compounded annual growth rate of 6.4 %. Over the same period, adspend in APAC and Western Europe is expected to grow on average 5.4% and 4.1%, respectively.”

The United States is expected to continue to provide the biggest contribution to advertising growth between 2022 and 2025 with adspend growing $66bn – representing 44% of the overall global adspend growth during the period. 

“The next largest growth will come from China, with close to $20 billion of additional adspend, followed by the United Kingdom, Brazil, Japan and India each adding in the range of approximately $5-6 billion.”

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 These six markets represent 72% of the world’s adspend. Other major markets such as Canada and Germany will also be significant contributors to growth, showing the continued importance of mature markets to advertising velocity, Zenith predicts.

“Overall, advertising momentum remains positive for several reasons, including rise of new channels such as retail media and SVOD. Online, including Search and Social Media, continues to lead as the fastest-growing category, constituting 55% of overall adspend in 2022 and expected to increase to 57% in 2025, with a compounded annual growth rate of 7.0%.”

Despite the overall Online category continuing to gain share, the fastest-growing sub-categories are overwhelmingly from video. Zenith estimates total Video adspend will make up 30% of the overall advertising market and will grow at a 4.8% compounded average growth rate between 2022 and 2025.

Read Also:  Big downgrading of advertising forecasts for 2022 and 2023

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