Waiting for the Metaverse – What is the value in ten years
Waiting for the metaverse – will it really take off? It is possible that, like many other previously hyped technological innovations, the metaverse never becomes what is envisioned, but if it does, it could in ten years contribute 2.8% to global GDP. This is estimated by consultancy Analysis Group in a study commissioned by Meta who’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, even changed the name of his Facebook to Meta to be prepared for a booming metaverse. “The metaverse will require many new technologies, innovations, and discoveries before it can be fully realized”, according to the consultancy report.
The report says that if metaverse adoption began today, it would have a contribution to global GDP of $3.01 trillion (measured in 2015 U.S. dollars) in 2031. This estimate is in range of existing industry projections ranging from $800 billion to $2 trillion over the next few years, and is focusing on near-term impacts on gaming, social media, ecommerce, and live entertainment. Other long term estimates range from approximately $3 trillion to over $80 trillion.
“The adoption rate of VR headsets is expected to depend on price, ease of use, proliferation of apps, and user experience in the virtual environment”, the report says mentioning that early users of VR hardware have complained about uncomfortable headsets.
“Software and operating systems for VR headsets are expected to remain one of the biggest challenges influencing adoption and retention.”
“Developing a seamless user experience for the metaverse is expected to take time and is anticipated to materialize in phases, as more individual and business users adopt the technology.”
The report says the metaverse is still in an early stage, with many contributors from around the world helping to plan its inclusive design and construction.
“We are currently witnessing the early phases of development, including the rolling out of infrastructure and technologies that will likely support the metaverse. The extent to which the economic potential of the metaverse is realized depends on how effectively the necessary infrastructure and technology are developed and deployed, as well as how widely the new technology is adopted by consumers and businesses.”
“Once the infrastructure is in place and adoption is underway, it opens the door for the development of endless endeavours built by creators, developers and businesses, as has been the case with the Internet and mobile technology.”
“The metaverse will require many new technologies, innovations, and discoveries before it can be fully realized.”
“Metaverse adoption may also face country- or regional-specific challenges in the form of governing bodies’ policy or regulatory objectives.”
The report says that a main takeaway from a recent international conference is that “data supervision and management—including establishing digital safety and personal privacy standards from the outset—is a key policy concern for AR/VR, given the substantial volume of information about individuals and their environment required to deliver immersive, engaging experiences”
“The impacts of the metaverse are likely to be felt differently in different sectors of the economy, in different regions, at different points in time, and for different people”, the report says.
“In the United States, metaverse technologies are currently expanding access to sports, helping combat biases via simulations, and merging physical and virtual worlds in gaming.”
“In Europe, industrial companies are adopting XR technologies to simplify and streamline prototyping, training, remote guidance, and customer relationship processes.”
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