Disinformation classified as severe global risk over next two years
Using misinformation and disinformation to further widen societal and political divides emerge as the most severe global risks over the next two years. It can undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments and result in unrest like violent protests, hate crime, civil confrontation and terrorism. These are conclusions in the World Economic Forum’s The Global Risks Report 2024
The report refers to 2024 as a big election year with elections in the US, the European Union, India etc. It does not mention the US experience 2021 when disinformation – online and offline – was used to claim that Joe Biden had not won the presidential election resulting in Donald Trump supporters storming the Washington Capitol Building.
The report shows international effects but stresses that that false information can also be used by domestic actors, meaning for instance governments, in pursuit of political agendas.
The erosion of political checks and balances, and growth in tools that spread and control information, could amplify the efficacy of domestic disinformation over the next two years, the report says.
“Global internet freedom is already in decline and access to wider sets of information has dropped in numerous countries. Falls in press freedoms in recent years and a related lack of strong investigative media, are also significant vulnerabilities that are set to grow.”
“Indeed, the proliferation of misinformation and disinformation may be leveraged to strengthen digital authoritarianism and the use of technology to control citizens.”
“Governments themselves will be increasingly in a position to determine what is true, potentially allowing political parties to monopolize the public discourse and suppress dissenting voices, including journalists and opponents.”
“Beyond elections, perceptions of reality are likely to also become more polarized, infiltrating the public discourse on issues ranging from public health to social justice. However, as truth is undermined, the risk of domestic propaganda and censorship will also rise in turn.”
“In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly empowered to control information based on what they determine to be “true”.
“Freedoms relating to the internet, press and access to wider sources of information that are already in decline risk descending into broader repression of information flows across a wider set of countries.”
The report says that misinformation and disinformation may radically disrupt electoral processes in several economies over the next two years.
“A growing distrust of information, as well as media and governments as sources, will deepen polarized views – a vicious cycle that could trigger civil unrest and possibly confrontation.”
“There is a risk of repression and erosion of rights as authorities seek to crack down on the proliferation of false information – as well as risks arising from inaction.”
Generally, the speed and effectiveness of regulation is unlikely to match the pace of development, the report says.
“Synthetic content will manipulate individuals, damage economies and fracture societies in numerous ways over the next two years. Falsified information could be deployed in pursuit of diverse goals, from climate activism to conflict escalation.”
“New classes of crimes will also proliferate, such as non-consensual deepfake pornography or stock market manipulation.”
The report says there is a risk that some governments will act too slowly, facing a trade-off between preventing misinformation and protecting free speech, while repressive governments could use enhanced regulatory control to erode human rights.
“Disinformation will also be increasingly personalized to its recipients and targeted to specific groups, such as minority communities, as well as disseminated through more opaque messaging platforms such as WhatsApp or WeChat.”
“The implications of these manipulative campaigns could be profound, threatening democratic processes. If the legitimacy of elections is questioned, civil confrontation is possible – and could even expand to internal conflicts and terrorism, and state collapse in more extreme cases.”
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